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Analyzing Bangladesh's Debt Sustainability Using SimSIP Debt

26 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2008  

Bernhard G. Gunter

Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC); American University

A. F. M. Ataur Rahman

North South University

Date Written: June 12, 2008


The ability to pay for a government-led investment strategy to achieve the millennium development goals (MDGs) is determined by the resources available to the government through economic growth, taxation, loans, and grants. Unsustainable public debts increase poverty directly through negative impacts on economic growth as well as indirectly through cuts in spending. Hence, the issue of fiscal debt sustainability is critical for achieving the MDGs. In this paper, we use the debt projection module of SimSIP Debt to project the evolution of Bangladesh's public debt over a 15-year horizon (from fiscal year 2006 to fiscal year 2021) under three different macroeconomic scenarios and two different financing scenarios of an ambitious government-led investment strategy.

Keywords: debt sustainability, public debt, MDGs

JEL Classification: O11

Suggested Citation

Gunter, Bernhard G. and Rahman, A. F. M. Ataur, Analyzing Bangladesh's Debt Sustainability Using SimSIP Debt (June 12, 2008). Available at SSRN: or

Bernhard G. Gunter (Contact Author)

Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC) ( email )

2508 Fowler Street
Falls Church, VA 22046-2012
United States

American University ( email )

4400 Mass. Ave. NW
Economics Dept.
Washington, DC 20016
United States


A. F. M. Ataur Rahman

North South University ( email )

12 Banani Commercial Area
Kemal Ataturk Avenue
Dhaka, Dhaka 1213 1213
01188029885611 (Phone)
01188028823030 (Fax)


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