Modelling Poverty by Not Modelling Poverty: An Application of a Simultaneous Hazards Approach to the UK

72 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2008

See all articles by Arnstein Aassve

Arnstein Aassve

University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)

Simon M. Burgess

University of Bristol - Department of Economics; University of Bristol - Leverhulme Centre for Market and Public Organisation (CMPO); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Matt Dickson

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Carol Propper

Imperial College London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); University of Bristol - Leverhulme Centre for Market and Public Organisation (CMPO)

Date Written: January 2006

Abstract

We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach to modelling poverty is the right way to bring economic tools to bear on the issue. In our implementation of this approach, we focus on endogenous demographic and employment transitions as the driving forces behind changes in poverty. We construct a dataset covering event histories over a long window and estimate five simultaneous hazards with unrestricted correlated heterogeneity. The model fits the demographic and poverty data reasonably well. We investigate the important parameters and processes for differences in individuals' poverty likelihood. Employment, and particularly employment of disadvantaged women with children, is important.

JEL Classification: I32

Suggested Citation

Aassve, Arnstein and Burgess, Simon and Dickson, Matt and Propper, Carol, Modelling Poverty by Not Modelling Poverty: An Application of a Simultaneous Hazards Approach to the UK (January 2006). LSE STICERD Research Paper No. CASE106. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1159337

Arnstein Aassve (Contact Author)

University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

Simon Burgess

University of Bristol - Department of Economics ( email )

8 Woodland Road
Bristol BS8 ITN
United Kingdom
+44 117 928 8436 (Phone)
+44 117 928 8577 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Economics/department/profiles/burgess.htm

University of Bristol - Leverhulme Centre for Market and Public Organisation (CMPO)

12 Priory Road
Bristol BS8 1TN
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Matt Dickson

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Carol Propper

Imperial College London Business School ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London SW7 2AZ, SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

University of Bristol - Leverhulme Centre for Market and Public Organisation (CMPO) ( email )

12 Priory Road
Bristol BS8 1TN
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Economics/department/profiles/propper.htm

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