A Scenario-Driven Decision Support System for Serious Crime Investigation

Posted: 17 Jul 2008

See all articles by Qiang Shen

Qiang Shen

Zhejiang University

Jeroen Keppens

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Colin Aitken

University of Edinburgh

Burkhard Schafer

University of Edinburgh - School of Law

Date Written: June 2006

Abstract

Consideration of a wide range of plausible crime scenarios during any crime investigation is important to seek convincing evidence and hence to minimize the likelihood of miscarriages of justice. It is equally important for crime investigators to be able to employ effective and efficient evidence-collection strategies that are likely to produce the most conclusive information under limited available resources. An intelligent decision support system that can assist human investigators by automatically constructing plausible scenarios, and reasoning with the likely best investigating actions will clearly be very helpful in addressing these challenging problems. This paper presents a system for creating scenario spaces from given evidence, based on an integrated application of techniques for compositional modelling and Bayesian network-based evidence evaluation. Methods of analysis are also provided by the use of entropy to exploit the synthesized scenario spaces in order to prioritize investigating actions and hypotheses. These theoretical developments are illustrated by realistic examples of serious crime investigation.

Keywords: crime investigation, decision support, scenario generation, scenario fragments, Bayesian networks, evidence evaluation, conditional independence, system architecture, entropy

Suggested Citation

Shen, Qiang and Keppens, Jeroen and Aitken, Colin and Schafer, Burkhard, A Scenario-Driven Decision Support System for Serious Crime Investigation (June 2006). Law, Probability and Risk, Vol. 5, Issue 2, pp. 87-117, 2006, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1161777 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgl014

Qiang Shen (Contact Author)

Zhejiang University

38 Zheda Road
Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058
China

Jeroen Keppens

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Colin Aitken

University of Edinburgh

Old College
South Bridge
Edinburgh, Scotland EH8 9JY
United Kingdom

Burkhard Schafer

University of Edinburgh - School of Law ( email )

Old College
South Bridge
Edinburgh, EH8 9YL
United Kingdom
0131-650-2035 (Phone)
0131-650-6317 (Fax)

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