Toward Computer-Aided Forecasting Systems: Gathering, Coding, and Validating the Knowledge

DSS-89 TRANSACTIONS: NINTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, George R. Widmeyer, ed., Institute of Management Sciences, pp. 103-119, 1989

17 Pages Posted: 21 Jul 2008

See all articles by Fred Collopy

Fred Collopy

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Date Written: July 21, 2008

Abstract

Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to make forecasts. The sessions with the experts yielded rules about when various extrapolation methods are likely to be most useful in obtaining accurate forecasts. The use of a computer-aided protocol analysis resulted in a reduction in the total lime required to code an expert's knowledge. The implications for overcoming the "knowledge acquisition bottleneck" are considered.

Suggested Citation

Collopy, Fred and Armstrong, J. Scott, Toward Computer-Aided Forecasting Systems: Gathering, Coding, and Validating the Knowledge (July 21, 2008). DSS-89 TRANSACTIONS: NINTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, George R. Widmeyer, ed., Institute of Management Sciences, pp. 103-119, 1989. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1164922

Fred Collopy

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems ( email )

10900 Euclid Ave.
Cleveland, OH 44106-7235
United States

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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