Do Judgmental Researchers Use their Own Research? A Review of Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

6 Pages Posted: 24 Jul 2008

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Date Written: July 23, 2008

Abstract

Assume the following problem: you must select a set of k items from a population of N, where the boundaries of N are ill-defined and no census of the population is available. How should you proceed? According to the research in Judgment Under Uncertainty (JUU), decision-makers are prone to numerous errors in such tasks.

More specifically, the problem Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky (KST) faced was to select, from a large number of existing papers, those that would be most useful to their potential audience. As nearly as I can tell, they made their selections by unaided intuition. As a result, the book suffers from the very problems that the book discusses (e.g., anchoring, availability and representativeness).

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Do Judgmental Researchers Use their Own Research? A Review of Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (July 23, 2008). International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, 1984. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1172737

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

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Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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