31 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2008 Last revised: 1 Dec 2011
Date Written: August 1, 2010
Over 5,000 popular technical trading rules are not consistently profitable in the 49 country indices that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. Each market has some rules that are profitable when considered in isolation but these profits are not statistically significant after data snooping bias adjustment. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that these trading rules compliment other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation during the time period we consider.
Keywords: Technical Analysis, Quantitative, Market Timing
JEL Classification: G12, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Marshall, Ben R. and Cahan, Rochester H. and Cahan, Jared, Technical Analysis Around the World (August 1, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1181367 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1181367
By Meb Faber