Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model

Posted: 9 Oct 1998

See all articles by Roberto Chang

Roberto Chang

Rutgers University, New Brunswick/Piscataway - Faculty of Arts and Sciences-New Brunswick/Piscataway - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Andrés Velasco

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: July 1998

Abstract

We present a simple model that can account for the main features of recent financial crises in emerging markets. The international illiquidity of the domestic financial system is at the center of the problem. Illiquid banks are a necessary and a sufficient condition for financial crises to occur. Domestic financial liberalization and capital flows from abroad (especially if short-term) can aggravate the illiquidity of banks and increase their vulnerability to exogenous shocks and shifts in expectations. A bank collapse multiplies the harmful effects of an initial shock, as a credit squeeze and costly liquidation of investment projects cause real output drops and collapses in asset prices. Under fixed exchange rates, a run on banks becomes a run on the currency if the central bank attempts to act as a lender of last resort.

JEL Classification: F3, E5, G2

Suggested Citation

Chang, Roberto and Velasco, Andrés, Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model (July 1998). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=119629

Roberto Chang (Contact Author)

Rutgers University, New Brunswick/Piscataway - Faculty of Arts and Sciences-New Brunswick/Piscataway - Department of Economics ( email )

75 Hamilton Street
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Andrés Velasco

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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