The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability

Posted: 8 Aug 2008

See all articles by Jacob Boudoukh

Jacob Boudoukh

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliyah; AQR Capital Management, LLC

Matthew P. Richardson

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); AQR Capital Management, LLC

Robert Whitelaw

New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 5 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2008

Abstract

The prevailing view in finance is that the evidence for long-horizon stock return predictability is significantly stronger than that for short horizons. We show that for persistent regressors, a characteristic of most of the predictive variables used in the literature, the estimators are almost perfectly correlated across horizons under the null hypothesis of no predictability. For the persistence levels of dividend yields, the analytical correlation is 99% between the 1- and 2-year horizon estimators and 94% between the 1- and 5-year horizons. Common sampling error across equations leads to ordinary least squares coefficient estimates and R2s that are roughly proportional to the horizon under the null hypothesis. This is the precise pattern found in the data. We perform joint tests across horizons for a variety of explanatory variables and provide an alternative view of the existing evidence.

Keywords: G12, G14, C12

Suggested Citation

Boudoukh, Jacob and Richardson, Matthew P. and Whitelaw, Robert F., The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability (July 2008). The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 21, Issue 4, pp. 1577-1605, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1211940 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhl042

Jacob Boudoukh (Contact Author)

Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliyah ( email )

P.O. Box 167
Herzliya, 46150
Israel

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

Matthew P. Richardson

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )

44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-190
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
212-998-0349 (Phone)
212-995-4233 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

Robert F. Whitelaw

New York University ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
212-998-0338 (Phone)
212-995-4233 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
709
PlumX Metrics