Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices

9 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2008

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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Abstract

Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent, and the academics on 51.3 percent. No group performed better than chance.

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices. Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 18, pp. 251-256, 1991. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1232569

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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