Sources of Economic Growth in Iran: A Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks, 1960-2003

Abstract

This paper examines the major determinants of GDP growth in Iran using annual time series data spanning from 1960 to 2003. The Iranian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes and regime shifts during the sample period. Thus, time series properties of the data are first analysed by Zivot-Andrews (1992) model. The empirical results based on this model indicate that there is not enough evidence against the null hypothesis of unit roots for all of the variables under investigation. Taking into account the resulting endogenously determined structural breaks; the Saikkonen and Luetkephol (2000) cointegration approach is then employed to determine the long-run drivers of economic growth. This cointegration technique accommodates potential structural breaks that could undermine the existence of a long-run relationship between GDP growth and its main determinants. Empirical estimates indicate that in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of physical investment, human capital, trade openness and technological innovations will improve economic growth.

Keywords: Structura break, Unit root tests, cointegration technique, Iranian Economy

JEL Classification: C12, C22, C52