The Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency

51 Pages Posted: 20 Aug 2008 Last revised: 5 Sep 2008

See all articles by Matthew B. Canzoneri

Matthew B. Canzoneri

Georgetown University

Robert E. Cumby

Georgetown University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Behzad Diba

Georgetown University

David Lopez-Salido

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: August 2008

Abstract

What are the macroeconomic consequences of the dominant role of the dollar in the international monetary system? Here, we present a calibrated two country model in which exports are invoiced in the key currency, and government bonds denominated in the key currency are held internationally to facilitate trade. Domestic government bonds and money are held in each country to facilitate domestic transactions. Our model generates deviations from uncovered interest parity that are as volatile as some empirical estimates, but much too small by others. Our model also speaks to some other empirical anomalies, such as the Backus - Smith puzzle. Shocks affecting asset supplies -- such as bond financed tax cuts, and open market operations -- have large effects in our model because they generate non-Ricardian changes in household wealth. Generally, shocks emanating from the key currency country do more to destabilize the world economy than equal sized shocks coming from the other country. Similarly, monetary and fiscal policy innovations in the key currency country are more potent than those in the other country. On the other hand, the key currency country is more vulnerable to financial market turbulence, such as a sell off of key currency bonds, which can lower consumption dramatically.

Suggested Citation

Canzoneri, Matthew B. and Cumby, Robert E. and Diba, Bezhad and Lopez-Salido, David, The Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency (August 2008). NBER Working Paper No. w14242. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1240227

Matthew B. Canzoneri

Georgetown University ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States
202-687-5911 (Phone)
202-687-6102 (Fax)

Robert E. Cumby (Contact Author)

Georgetown University - Department of Economics ( email )

580 Intercultural Center
Washington, DC 20057
United States
202-687-2990 (Phone)
202-687-6102 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Bezhad Diba

Georgetown University ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States
2026875682 (Phone)
2026876102 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.georgetown.edu/

David Lopez-Salido

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

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