A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda

CEPII Working Paper No 2006-10

51 Pages Posted: 21 Aug 2008

See all articles by Yvan Decreux

Yvan Decreux

CEPII, Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales, Paris

Lionel Fontagne

Banque de France; CEPII; University of Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics

Date Written: May 1, 2006

Abstract

Different options contemplated by the negotiators of the Doha Development Agenda are assessed using the Computable General Equilibrium model MIRAGE, the MAcMap and GTAP databases, existing estimates of protection in the services sector as well as estimates of the administrative and transaction costs to be reduced by trade facilitation measures.

In all scenarios (with the exception of "free trade"), we consider that the "G90" will not be requested to liberalise. Export subsidies in agriculture are completely eliminated, taking into account the 2013 deadline agreed in Hong Kong in December 2005, and domestic farm support is halved. When an average 36% linear cut in tariffs is implemented in the industrial and in the agricultural sectors (but with a reduction limited to 25% for sensitive products in the latter sector), we end up with a "Round for nothing". At the opposite of the spectrum, free trade in goods would lead to USD 232 bn welfare gains for the world economy (expressed in 2005 terms). There is however more to be gained, for the world economy, from a 25% cut of the barriers in services, than from a 70% tariff cut in agriculture in the North and a 50% cut in the South. On the top of this, a successful trade facilitation agenda would be equivalent to doubling official development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa countries after 2020. In the latter case, how to finance such program remains however a challenging issue.

Suggested Citation

Decreux, Yvan and Fontagne, Lionel, A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda (May 1, 2006). CEPII Working Paper No 2006-10, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1243462 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1243462

Yvan Decreux

CEPII, Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales, Paris ( email )

9 Rue Georges Pitard
Paris Cedex 15, F-75015
France

Lionel Fontagne (Contact Author)

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

HOME PAGE: http://www.lionel-fontagne.eu/

CEPII ( email )

9 Rue Georges Pitard
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+33 1 53 68 55 06 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://lionelfontagne.weebly.com/

Paris School of Economics ( email )

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Paris, 75014 75014
France
+33 1 44 07 89 94 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://lionelfontagne.weebly.com/

University of Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne ( email )

Maison des Sciences Economiques
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Paris, 75013
France
+33 1 44 07 89 94 (Phone)
+33 1 53 68 55 01 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://lionelfontagne.weebly.com/

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