Revisiting the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Xfi Centre For Finance & Investment Working Paper No. 08/02
24 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2008
Date Written: May 2008
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure has been decisively rejected by a large empirical literature that spans several decades. In this paper, using a newly constructed dataset of synthetic zero coupon bond yields, we show that evidence against the expectations hypothesis became very much weaker following the widespread acceptance of its empirical failure to describe the behavior of interest rates in the early 1990s. Indeed, in the period 1991-2004, the expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected for most bond maturities. These results are consistent with the idea that asset pricing anomalies tend to disappear once they are widely recognized.
Keywords: Expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, Forward yields, Yield spreads, Campbell and Shiller tests, Vector autoregression
JEL Classification: G10
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation