Errors in Judicial Decisions

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 08-089/1

34 Pages Posted: 22 Sep 2008

See all articles by Joep Sonnemans

Joep Sonnemans

University of Amsterdam - Amsterdam School of Economics (ASE)

Frans van Dijk

Government of the Netherlands - Council for the Judiciary

Date Written: September 19, 2008

Abstract

In criminal cases the task of the judge is to transform the uncertainty about the facts into the certainty of the verdict. In this experiment we examine the relationship between evidence of which the strength is known, subjective probability of guilt and verdict for abstract cases. We look at two situations: (1) all evidence is given and (2) evidence can be acquired. Roughly half of the participants do not base their decision on a subjective belief of the probability of guilt. The others underestimate in general the probability of guilt, but this is more than compensated by a tendency to convict at too low probability of guilt. In the situation where evidence can be acquired, participants do not acquire enough evidence.

Keywords: Decision under uncertainty, judicial decisions, experiment

JEL Classification: C91, D81, K4

Suggested Citation

Sonnemans, Joep and van Dijk, Frans, Errors in Judicial Decisions (September 19, 2008). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 08-089/1, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1270597 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1270597

Joep Sonnemans (Contact Author)

University of Amsterdam - Amsterdam School of Economics (ASE) ( email )

Roetersstraat 11
1018 WB Amsterdam
Netherlands
+31 20 525 4249 (Phone)
+31 20 525 5283 (Fax)

Frans Van Dijk

Government of the Netherlands - Council for the Judiciary ( email )

Netherlands