Is it Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?
Posted: 1 Oct 2008
Date Written: September, 29 2008
Index-based derivatives markets are fast developing in Europe, the United-States and Asia. Both valuation based and transactions based indices are used as bases for these derivatives contracts. This paper addresses the issue of revision effects on key index parameters, and their implications for derivatives pricing and questions whether these indices may be suitable for derivatives. More specifically, we address the issue of the robustness of the price level, means, and volatility estimates for two repeat sales real estate price indices: the classical WRS method and a PCA factorial method, as elaborated in Baroni, Barthelemy and Mokrane (2007). Our work is an extension of Clapham, Englund, Quigley and Redfearn (2006), with the aim of helping judge the efficiency of such indices in designing real estate derivatives. We use an extensive repeat sales database for the Paris (France) residential market. We describe the dataset used and compute the parameters (index price level, trend and volatility) of the indices produced over the period 1982-2005. We then test the sensitivity of these two indices to revisions due to additional repeat-sales transactions information. Our analysis is conducted on the overall Paris market as well as on sub-markets.
Our main conclusion is that even if the revision problem may cause substantial concern for the stability of key parameters that are used as inputs in the pricing of derivatives contacts, the order of magnitude of revision on derivatives pricing is not sufficient to deter market participants when it comes to products such a sawp contract or insurance contracts against severe losses. We also show that WRS and PCA react differently to revision. The impact of index revision is non negligible in estimating the index price level for both indices. This result is consistent with existing literature for the US and Swedish markets. Price level revision causes moderate concern when trading products such as index futures or price insurance contracts, but could deter option like products. We show that managing this price level revision risk is similar to delta hedging in standard option pricing theory. We also find that although revision impact on index trend can be important, the WRS method seems more robust than PCA. However, the trend revision impact order of magnitude for contracts such as total return swaps is low. Finally, revision influence on volatility estimates seems to have a modest impact on derivatives, and according to the robustness of the volatility estimate, the PCA factorial index seems to fare relatively better than the WRS index. Hence, our findings show that the factorial index could better sustain volatility based derivatives. We also show that whatever the index, managing this volatility revision risk is similar to vega hedging in option pricing theory.
Keywords: real estate indices, repeat sales indices, index estimates, real estate derivatives
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