Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth
31 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2008
Date Written: October 28, 2008
This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other 'soft' information are valuable for now-casting.
Keywords: Forecasting, Monetary Policy, Factor Model, Real Time Data, Large datasets, News
JEL Classification: E52, C33, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation