Galaxy Micro Systems Supplement

1 Pages Posted: 21 Oct 2008

See all articles by Sherwood C. Frey

Sherwood C. Frey

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

Abstract

This supplement to "Galaxy Micro Systems" (UVA-QA-0394) provides sales forecasts in a cumulative probability distribution forecast that are consistent with the discrete forecasts of the main case.

Excerpt

UVA-QA-0395

GALAXY MICRO SYSTEMS SUPPLEMENT

Taylor Jansen, after reviewing her assessment of GMS-II sales from the regional offices, felt uneasy about the forecast's simplicity. Focusing on three possible outcomes did not seem to capture adequately the possibility that sales could be anywhere within a range of values and that the extremes of the range could be beyond the high and low figures of her forecasts. In addition, the three outcomes were given extraordinary weight in the decision, even though they were just a few among many possible outcomes.

The Galaxy planning system required that sales forecasts be made in the form of cumulative distribution functions, using the terminology below to describe the .05, .25, .50, .75, and .95 fractiles. Jansen saw this forecasting format as a means to address her concerns with her rough-cut forecast. The resulting forecasts were

Sales by Regional Offices

If Major Purchase If No Major Purchase

. . .

Keywords: decision theory, diverse protagonist, female, diversity case, diversity

Suggested Citation

Frey, Sherwood C., Galaxy Micro Systems Supplement. Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0395. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1283406

Sherwood C. Frey (Contact Author)

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business ( email )

P.O. Box 6550
Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.darden.virginia.edu/faculty/frey.htm

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