Galaxy Micro Systems Supplement
1 Pages Posted: 21 Oct 2008
This supplement to "Galaxy Micro Systems" (UVA-QA-0394) provides sales forecasts in a cumulative probability distribution forecast that are consistent with the discrete forecasts of the main case.
GALAXY MICRO SYSTEMS SUPPLEMENT
Taylor Jansen, after reviewing her assessment of GMS-II sales from the regional offices, felt uneasy about the forecast's simplicity. Focusing on three possible outcomes did not seem to capture adequately the possibility that sales could be anywhere within a range of values and that the extremes of the range could be beyond the high and low figures of her forecasts. In addition, the three outcomes were given extraordinary weight in the decision, even though they were just a few among many possible outcomes.
The Galaxy planning system required that sales forecasts be made in the form of cumulative distribution functions, using the terminology below to describe the .05, .25, .50, .75, and .95 fractiles. Jansen saw this forecasting format as a means to address her concerns with her rough-cut forecast. The resulting forecasts were
Sales by Regional Offices
If Major Purchase If No Major Purchase
. . .
Keywords: decision theory, diverse protagonist, female, diversity case, diversity
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation