Determinants of Hedging and Risk Premia in Commodity Futures Markets

Posted: 1 Dec 2008

See all articles by David A. Hirshleifer

David A. Hirshleifer

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business; NBER

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of commodity futures hedging and of risk premia arising from covariation of the futures price with stock market returns, and with the revenues of producers. Owing to supply shocks that stochastically redistribute real wealth (surplus) between producers and consumers, and to limited participation in the futures market, the total risk premium in the model is not proportional to the contract's covariance with aggregate consumption. Stock market variability interacts with the incentive to hedge, causing the producer hedging component of the risk premium to increase (decrease) with income elasticity, for a normal (inferior) good. Production costs that depend on output raise the premium. We argue that output and demand shocks will typically be positively correlated, raising the premium. High supply elasticity reduces the absolute hedging premium by reducing the variability of spot price and revenue.

Suggested Citation

Hirshleifer, David A., Determinants of Hedging and Risk Premia in Commodity Futures Markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (JFQA), Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 313-331, September 1989. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1286185

David A. Hirshleifer (Contact Author)

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business ( email )

Irvine, CA California 92697-3125
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.uci.edu/dhirshle/

NBER ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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