The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain

73 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2008  

Lorenzo Cappellari

Catholic University of the Sacred Heart of Milan; University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Stephen P. Jenkins

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Social Policy and Administration; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)

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Abstract

We model the dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Britain using data from the British Household Panel Survey, waves 1-15. First, we discuss definitions of social assistance benefit receipt, and present information about the trends between 1991 and 2005 in the receipt of social assistance benefits, and in annual rates of transition into and out of receipt. Second, we review potential multivariate modelling approaches especially the dynamic random effects probit models that are used in our empirical analysis and, third, discuss sample selection criteria and explanatory variables. Fourth, we present our regression estimation estimates and interpret them. The final section contains a summary of the substantive results, and highlights some lessons concerning application of the analysis for other countries and some methodological issues.

Keywords: social assistance, welfare benefits, dynamic random effects probit, income dynamics

JEL Classification: I38, C33, C35

Suggested Citation

Cappellari, Lorenzo and Jenkins, Stephen P., The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain. IZA Discussion Paper No. 3765. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1286723 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0042-7092.2007.00700.x

Lorenzo Cappellari (Contact Author)

Catholic University of the Sacred Heart of Milan ( email )

Largo Gemelli, 1
Via Necchi 9
Milan, MI 20123
Italy

University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Stephen P. Jenkins

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Social Policy and Administration ( email )

Houghton Street
London, England WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom
+44 120 687 3374 (Phone)
+44 120 687 3151 (Fax)

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