A Comparative Analysis of the Empirical Validity of Two Rule Based Belief Languages

35 Pages Posted: 23 Oct 2008

See all articles by Shimon Schocken

Shimon Schocken

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Yu-Ming Wang

Independent

Date Written: July 1992

Abstract

Rule based expert systems deal with inexact reasoning through avariety of quasi-probabilistic methods, including the widely usedcertainty factors (CF) and subjective Bayesian (SB) models, versionsof which are implemented in many commercial expert systemshells. Previous research established that under certain independenceassumptions, SB and CF are ordinally compatible:when used to compute the beliefs in several hypotheses of interestunder the same set of circumstances, the hypothesis that willattain the highest posterior probability will also attain the highestcertainty factor, etc. This is very relevant to the expert systemsfield, where most inference engines and explanation facilities aredesigned to utilize the relative scales of posterior beliefs, makinglittle or no use of their absolute magnitudes. The objective ofthis research is to explore empirically whether the compatibilityof SB and CF extends to the field, where subjective degrees ofbelief and different elicitation procedures might bias the mathematicalkinship of the two belief languages. In particular, we seekto know (i) whether this bias is random or systematic; and (ii)what the bias reveals about SB and CF as two alternative meansto elicit and revise beliefs in a rule based system.

Keywords: Belief revision, inexact reasoning, certainty factors, uncertainty in artificial intelligence

Suggested Citation

Schocken, Shimon and Wang, Yu-Ming, A Comparative Analysis of the Empirical Validity of Two Rule Based Belief Languages (July 1992). NYU Working Paper No. IS-92-24, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1288501

Shimon Schocken (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Yu-Ming Wang

Independent

No Address Available
United States

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