Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis

35 Pages Posted: 27 Oct 2008

See all articles by Matteo Manera

Matteo Manera

University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy

Cristina Cattaneo

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Elisa Scarpa

Edison Trading

Date Written: October 24, 2008

Abstract

In recent years, concerns regarding the environmental implications of the rising coal demand have induced considerable efforts to generate long-term forecasts of China's energy requirements. Nevertheless, none of the previous empirical studies on energy demand for China has tackled the issue of modelling coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap. In particular, we model and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using time series data disaggregated by provinces. Moreover, not only does our analysis account for heterogeneity among provinces, but also, given the nature of the data, it captures the presence of spatial autocorrelation among provinces using a spatial econometric model. A fixed effects spatial lag model and a fixed effects spatial error model are estimated to describe and forecast industrial coal demand. Our empirical results show that the fixed effect spatial lag model better captures the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of 4 percent.

Keywords: Energy demand, Coal demand, China, Spatial econometrics, Panel data, Forecasting

JEL Classification: C23, E6, Q31, Q41

Suggested Citation

Manera, Matteo and Cattaneo, Cristina and Scarpa, Elisa, Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis (October 24, 2008). FEEM Working Paper No. 8.2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1289203 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1289203

Matteo Manera (Contact Author)

University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )

Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8
Milan, 20126
Italy
+39 02 6448 5819 (Phone)
+39 02 6448 5878 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.matteomanera.it

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy ( email )

Corso Magenta, 63
Milan, 20123
Italy
+39 02 520 36944 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.feem.it

Cristina Cattaneo

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Elisa Scarpa

Edison Trading ( email )

Foro Buonaparte, 31
Milan, 20121
Italy

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
162
Abstract Views
1,226
rank
192,054
PlumX Metrics