An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data

62 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2008

See all articles by Enrique G. Mendoza

Enrique G. Mendoza

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); University of Pennsylvania

Marco E. Terrones

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 30, 2008

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for measuring credit booms and uses it to identify credit booms in emerging and industrial economies over the past four decades. In addition, we use event study methods to identify the key empirical regularities of credit booms in macroeconomic aggregates and micro-level data. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations, widening external deficits and managed exchange rates. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and firm-level measures of leverage, firm values, and external financing, and bank-level indicators of banking fragility. Credit booms in industrial and emerging economies show three major differences: (1) credit booms and the macro and micro fluctuations associated with them are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; (2) not all credit booms end in financial crises, but most emerging markets crises were associated with credit booms; and (3) credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.

Keywords: Credit booms, business cycles, emerging markets

JEL Classification: E32, E44, E51, G21

Suggested Citation

Mendoza, Enrique G. and Terrones, Marco E., An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data (July 30, 2008). FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 936. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1292330 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1292330

Enrique G. Mendoza

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~egme/index.html

Marco E. Terrones

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-4329 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://imf.org/external/np/CV/AuthorCV.aspx?AuthID=171

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