Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

45 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2008 Last revised: 28 Jun 2010

See all articles by Asher Blass

Asher Blass

Bank of Israel - Research Department

Saul Lach

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics; CEPR

Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: October 2008

Abstract

When data on actual choices are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes pose choice scenarios and ask respondents to state the actions they would choose if they were to face these scenarios. The data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones because researchers typically provide respondents with less information than they would have facing actual choice problems. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about their behavior. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and applies the methodology to estimate preferences for electricity reliability in Israel.

Suggested Citation

Blass, Asher and Lach, Saul and Manski, Charles F., Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability (October 2008). NBER Working Paper No. w14451, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1294126

Asher Blass

Bank of Israel - Research Department ( email )

PO Box 780
Jerusalem 91007
Israel
+97 2 6552 600 (Phone)
+97 22 6552 660 (Fax)

Saul Lach

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics ( email )

Mount Scopus
Jerusalem, 91905
Israel
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+972 2 581 6071 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/saul/saul.html

CEPR

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United Kingdom

Charles F. Manski (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Economics ( email )

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United States
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847-491-7001 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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