Updating Expectations: An Analysis of Post-9/11 Returns

39 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2008

See all articles by Jarl G. Kallberg

Jarl G. Kallberg

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance

Crocker H. Liu

Arizona State University

Paolo Pasquariello

University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 2005


This study analyzes how three groups of market participants - insiders, analysts, and investors - revised their expected returns on New York Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in response to the catastrophic events of September 11, 2001. The attack on the WTC represents a unique experimental setting to evaluate financial markets' reaction to external shocks for several reasons. First, these events, of a totally unanticipated and unprecedented nature, could not have been built into the market's expectations; hence, market participants had to learn something new rather than just recalibrate their expectations on past occurrences. Second, unlike other studies of market reactions, the impact of the terrorist attacks on REIT returns was ambiguous, since it was uncertain if the effect of reduced supply of office space in New York would outweigh the impact of the negative shocks to the local and national economy on its demand. Finally, the period of market closure that followed 9/11 gave these players ample opportunity to reassess their expectations. Our analysis reveals that, on the day when markets reopened, REITs with significant exposure to the New York area outperformed a broad REIT office index by 4.1%. However, we find that, according to several metrics of real market behavior, this anticipated superior performance of New York office properties did not materialize. Consistent with notions of market efficiency, we find that insiders were the first to lower their expectations (99.9% of their trades in REITs with New York exposure were sales in the month following 9/11), followed by analysts (the vast majority of them revised downward their expectations of NY REIT performance in the first weeks of November 2001), and finally market prices adjusted to reflect the underlying real market behavior; indeed, abnormal REIT returns had disappeared by mid November 2001.

Keywords: Abnormal Returns, Market Over-Reaction

Suggested Citation

Kallberg, Jarl G. (Jerry) and Liu, Crocker H. and Pasquariello, Paolo, Updating Expectations: An Analysis of Post-9/11 Returns (November 2005). NYU Working Paper No. FIN-05-010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1294146

Jarl G. (Jerry) Kallberg (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
212-998-0339 (Phone)
212-995-4233 (Fax)

Crocker H. Liu

Arizona State University ( email )

W.P. Carey School of Business
P.O. Box 873906
Tempe, AZ 85287-3906
United States
480-965-3259 (Phone)
480-965-8539 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.public.asu.edu/~chliu1

Paolo Pasquariello

University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business ( email )

709 Tappan Street
Room R4434
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
United States
734-764-9286 (Phone)
240-526-7168 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://webuser.bus.umich.edu/ppasquar/

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