Impacts of Trades in an Error-Correction Model of Quote Prices
52 Pages Posted: 4 Nov 2008
Date Written: August 2000
In this paper we analyze and interpret the quote price dynamics of 100 NYSE stockswith varying average trade frequencies. We specify an error-correction model for the logdifference of the bid and the ask price, with the spread acting as the error-correctionterm, and include as regressors the characteristics of the trades occurring between quote observations, if any. We find that short duration and medium volume trades have the largest impacts on quote prices for all one hundred stocks, and that buyer initiated trades primarily move the ask price while seller initiated trades primarily move the bid price. Trades have a greater impact on quotes in both the short and the long run for the infrequently traded stocks than for the more actively traded stocks. Finally, we find strong evidence that the spread is mean reverting.
Keywords: market microstructure, error-correction, vector autoregression, price dynamics
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