The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 2008-21

67 Pages Posted: 5 Nov 2008

See all articles by Matteo Cervellati

Matteo Cervellati

University of Bologna - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 2008

Abstract

We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and cross-country panel data.

Keywords: Economic and Demographic Transition, Adult Longevity, Child Mortality, Heterogeneous Human Capital, Comparative Development, Development Traps, Kernel Distributions

JEL Classification: E10, J10, J13, N30, O10, O40

Suggested Citation

Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe, The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development (November 2008). University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 2008-21, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1295442 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1295442

Matteo Cervellati

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Strada Maggiore 45
Bologna, 40125
Italy
+39-2092605 (Phone)
+39-2092664 (Fax)

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/

Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193
Spain

Uwe Sunde (Contact Author)

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) ( email )

Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1
Munich, DE Bavaria 80539
Germany

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