The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development
University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 2008-21
67 Pages Posted: 5 Nov 2008
There are 3 versions of this paper
The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development
The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development
The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development
Date Written: November 2008
Abstract
We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and cross-country panel data.
Keywords: Economic and Demographic Transition, Adult Longevity, Child Mortality, Heterogeneous Human Capital, Comparative Development, Development Traps, Kernel Distributions
JEL Classification: E10, J10, J13, N30, O10, O40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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