Effects of Amount of Information on Judgment Accuracy and Confidence
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 107, pp. 97-105, 2008
9 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2008
When a person evaluates his or her confidence in a judgment, what is the effect of receiving more judgment-relevant information? We report three studies that show when judges receive more information, their confidence increases more than their accuracy, producing substantial confidence-accuracy discrepancies. Our results suggest that judges do not adjust for the cognitive limitations that reduce their ability to use additional information effectively. We place these findings in a more general framework of understanding the cues to confidence that judges use and how those cues relate to accuracy and calibration.
Keywords: Judgment, Confidence, Accuracy, Football, Overconfidence, Calibration, Amount, Validity
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