Effects of Amount of Information on Judgment Accuracy and Confidence

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 107, pp. 97-105, 2008

9 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2008  

Claire I. Tsai

University of Toronto - Joseph L. Rotman School of Management

Joshua Klayman

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Reid Hastie

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Abstract

When a person evaluates his or her confidence in a judgment, what is the effect of receiving more judgment-relevant information? We report three studies that show when judges receive more information, their confidence increases more than their accuracy, producing substantial confidence-accuracy discrepancies. Our results suggest that judges do not adjust for the cognitive limitations that reduce their ability to use additional information effectively. We place these findings in a more general framework of understanding the cues to confidence that judges use and how those cues relate to accuracy and calibration.

Keywords: Judgment, Confidence, Accuracy, Football, Overconfidence, Calibration, Amount, Validity

Suggested Citation

Tsai, Claire I. and Klayman, Joshua and Hastie, Reid, Effects of Amount of Information on Judgment Accuracy and Confidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 107, pp. 97-105, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1297347

Claire I. Tsai (Contact Author)

University of Toronto - Joseph L. Rotman School of Management ( email )

105 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6
Canada
416 946 3128 (Phone)
416 978 5433 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/facbios/viewFac.asp?facultyID=Claire.Tsai

Joshua Klayman

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Reid Hastie

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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