Effects of Task Format on Probabilistic Forecasting of Stock Prices

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12, pp. 9-24, 1996

Posted: 23 Nov 2008

See all articles by Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu

Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu

Queen Mary University of London; City University London - Sir John Cass Business School

Dilek Onkal

Bilkent University

Date Written: 1996

Abstract

This study aims to explore the differences in various dimensions of forecasting accuracy that may result from the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts. In particular, we examine the effects of using multiple-interval and dichotomous formats on the performance of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices. Probabilistic forecasts of these experts are compared with those provided by semi-experts comprised of other banking professionals trained in portfolio management, as well as with forecasts provided by a novice group. The results suggest that the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts has a differential impact on the performance of experts, semi-experts, and novices. The implications of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given.

Keywords: Subjective probability, Probability forecasting, Judgmental forecasting, Stock-price forecasting, Task format

Suggested Citation

Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur and Onkal, Dilek, Effects of Task Format on Probabilistic Forecasting of Stock Prices (1996). International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12, pp. 9-24, 1996. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1298543

Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu

Queen Mary University of London ( email )

Francis Bancroft Building
Mile End Road
London, E1 4NS
United Kingdom

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom
+44 20 7040 0124 (Phone)
+44 20 7040 8853 (Fax)

Dilek Onkal (Contact Author)

Bilkent University ( email )

Bilkent University
Faculty of Business Administration
Bilkent, Ankara 06800
Turkey
+90.312.290.1596 (Phone)

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