The it Revolution and the Stock Market

17 Pages Posted: 12 Nov 2008

See all articles by Jeremy Greenwood

Jeremy Greenwood

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Boyan Jovanovic

New York University - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 1999

Abstract

A new technology or product is often developed by the single entrepreneur. Whether he reaches the initial public offering stage or is acquired by a listed firm, it takes time for the innovator to add value to the stock market. Indeed, the innovation may, at first, reduce the market's value because some firms --- usually large or old --- will cling to old technologies that have lost their momentum. This paper argues that (a) the market declined in the late 1960s because it felt that the old technologies either had lost their momentum or would give way to IT, and that (b) IT innovators boosted the stock market's value only in the 1980s. If the stock market provides a forecast of future events, then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate about growth in future profits for the economy. This translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth, holding other things equal (such as capital's share of income).

Keywords: Information Technology, Stock Market

Suggested Citation

Greenwood, Jeremy and Jovanovic, Boyan, The it Revolution and the Stock Market (January 1999). NYU Working Paper No. S-MF-99-01. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1300253

Jeremy Greenwood

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-1505 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://jeremygreenwood.net

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Boyan Jovanovic

New York University - Department of Economics ( email )

19 w 4 st.
New York, NY 10012
United States

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