Cigarette Smoking, Pregnancy, Forward Looking Behavior and Dynamic Inconsistency

30 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2008

See all articles by Carlo Ciccarelli

Carlo Ciccarelli

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics

Luigi Giamboni

Independent

Robert Waldmann

Universita di Roma Tor Vergata; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: November, 14 2008

Abstract

This paper addresses two aspects of the model of rational addiction: forward looking behavior and time consistent references. It explores smoking by women before, during and after pregnancy using the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). Pregnancy is used as an instrument for a partially predictable future decrease in smoking. Women reduce the average number of cigarettes they smoke and many quit in the period 10 to 15 months before the birth of a child. Our analysis suggests that this effect may be stronger for married than for unmarried women, corresponding to the higher probability that the pregnancies of married women are planned. Pregnancy is also used as an instrument to estimate the parameters of a structural model of addiction. The estimates imply that cigarettes are highly addictive. Finally, we present statistically significant evidence that, even when the expected number of cigarettes smoked one month after the interview is taken into account, expected smoking further in the future has an independent effect on current consumption. This effect remains even when we impose the highest theoretically possible coefficient on expected cigarettes smoked one month after the interview. This means that the null of time consistency is (barely) rejected against the alternative of time inconsistency.

Suggested Citation

Ciccarelli, Carlo and Giamboni, Luigi and Waldmann, Robert, Cigarette Smoking, Pregnancy, Forward Looking Behavior and Dynamic Inconsistency (November, 14 2008). CEIS Working Paper, Vol. 6, No. 9, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1301464 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1301464

Carlo Ciccarelli

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Via Columbia n.2
Rome, rome 00100
Italy

Luigi Giamboni

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Robert Waldmann (Contact Author)

Universita di Roma Tor Vergata ( email )

Piazzale Aldo Moro 5
Roma, Rome 00185
Italy

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
57
rank
345,895
Abstract Views
582
PlumX Metrics