Implications of the 'Bread and Peace' Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election

14 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2008 Last revised: 13 Oct 2010

See all articles by Douglas A. Hibbs

Douglas A. Hibbs

University of Gothenburg - Center for Public Sector Research (CEFOS)

Date Written: June 7, 2008

Abstract

Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.

Keywords: 2008 US presidential election, economic voting, Iraq war

JEL Classification: H19

Suggested Citation

Hibbs, Douglas A., Implications of the 'Bread and Peace' Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election (June 7, 2008). Public Choice, Vol. 137, pp. 1-10, 2008, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1301574

Douglas A. Hibbs (Contact Author)

University of Gothenburg - Center for Public Sector Research (CEFOS) ( email )

Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/

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