Understanding Crude Oil Prices
James D. Hamilton
University of California at San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NBER Working Paper No. w14492
This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 46
Date posted: November 17, 2008