China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries

33 Pages Posted: 25 Nov 2008 Last revised: 13 Aug 2010

See all articles by Gordon H. Hanson

Gordon H. Hanson

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IRPS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Raymond Robertson

Macalester College - Department of Economics

Date Written: November 2008

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of China's growth on developing countries that specialize in manufacturing. Over 2000-2005, manufacturing accounted for 32% of China's GDP and 89% of its merchandise exports, making it more specialized in the sector than any other large developing economy. Using the gravity model of trade, we decompose bilateral trade into components associated with demand conditions in importing countries, supply conditions in exporting countries, and bilateral trade costs. We identify 10 developing economies for which manufacturing represents more than 75% of merchandise exports (Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey), which are in theory the countries most exposed to the adverse consequences of China's export growth. Our results suggest that had China's export supply capacity been constant over the 1995-2005 period, demand for exports would have been 0.8% to 1.6% higher in the 10 countries studied. Thus, even for the developing countries most specialized in export manufacturing, China's expansion has represented only a modest negative shock.

Suggested Citation

Hanson, Gordon H. and Robertson, Raymond E., China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries (November 2008). NBER Working Paper No. w14497. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1305507

Gordon H. Hanson (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IRPS) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0519
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Raymond E. Robertson

Macalester College - Department of Economics ( email )

1600 Grand Ave.
Saint Paul, MN 55105
United States

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