A Model of Time-on-Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall

Abstract

This article develops a model and provides a closed-form formula to uncover the theoretical relationship between real estate price and time on market (TOM). Our model shows a nonlinear positive price-TOM relationship, and it identifies three economic factors that affect the impact of TOM on sale price. We demonstrate that conventional metrics for real estate return and risk, which are borrowed in a naïve fashion from finance theory, do not account for marketing period risk and tend to overestimate real estate returns and underestimate real estate risks. Our model provides a simple way to correct such bias. This theory helps to explain the apparent risk-premium puzzle in real estate.