Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy

55 Pages Posted: 5 Dec 2008

See all articles by Agar Brugiavini

Agar Brugiavini

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia

Franco Peracchi

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS); EIEF

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Date Written: December 4, 2008

Abstract

In this paper, we contribute to the current debate on the Italian pension system by analyzing the impact of social security reforms, in terms of both budgetary implications and distributional effects. This is done by simulating the effects of three hypothetical reforms, plus the effects of the 1995-reform of the Italian pension system (the so-called Dini reform). Our approach relies on the use of a semi-structural econometric model to predict retirement probabilities under different policy cenarios, so as to properly take into account the behavioral effects of the reforms. On the basis of the estimated retirement model, we develop a complete accounting exercise which includes not only changes in gross future benefits due to policy changes, but also changes in social security contributions, income taxes and value added taxes. Thus, our results provide not only estimates of the workers' gains or losses, but also an exhaustive evaluation of the gains and losses for the government budget. We find that the reforms, particularly the Dini reform (once fully phased in), have a substantial impact on individuals' retirement decisions and their net social security wealth, as well as substantial gains for the government finances.

Keywords: Social security budget, early retirement, fiscal effects of pension reforms

JEL Classification: H55, J21, J26

Suggested Citation

Brugiavini, Agar and Peracchi, Franco, Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy (December 4, 2008). University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Dept. of Economics Research Paper Series No. 30/WP/2008, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1311112 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1311112

Agar Brugiavini (Contact Author)

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Franco Peracchi

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Via di Tor Vergata
Rome, Lazio 00133
Italy

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy

EIEF ( email )

via Sallustiana 62
Rome, 00187
Italy

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