Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission
31 Pages Posted: 18 Dec 2008
Date Written: November 2008
Abstract
The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870 to 1914), the period of the "bloc economy" (1915 to 1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960-2001). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before.
Keywords: bloc economy, business cycle, cluster analysis, globalization, McNemar Test
JEL Classification: E32, F0, F15, F41, N10
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification
By Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen
-
International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors
By M. Ayhan Kose, Chris Otrok, ...
-
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization
By Jean M. Imbs
-
Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization
By Jean M. Imbs
-
Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization
By Jean M. Imbs
-
Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence
By Bent E. Sørensen, Sebnem Kalemli-ozcan, ...
-
Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries
Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission
This is a CEPR Discussion Paper. CEPR charges a fee of $8.00 for this paper.
If you wish to purchase the right to make copies of this paper for distribution to others, please select the quantity.
