Has Emerging Asia Decoupled? An Analysis of Production and Trade Linkages Using the Asian International Input-Output Table

44 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2009

See all articles by Gabor Pula

Gabor Pula

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations

Tuomas A. Peltonen

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: January 14, 2009

Abstract

Due to the emergence of global production networks, trade statistics have became less accurate in describing the dependence of emerging Asia on external demand. This paper analyses, using an update of the Asian International Input-Output (AIO) table, the interdependence of emerging Asian countries, the United States, the EU15, and Japan via trade and production linkages. According to the results, we do not find evidence of the decoupling of emerging Asia from the rest of the world. On the contrary, we find evidence on increasing trade integration, both globally and regionally. Nonetheless, our analysis indicates that emerging Asia's dependence on exports is only about one-third of its GDP, i.e. well below the 50% exposure suggested by trade data. This finding can be explained by the high import content of exports in these economies, which is a result of the increasing segmentation of production across the region.

Keywords: emerging Asia, Asian International Input-Output table, real linkages, decoupling, resilience

JEL Classification: F14, C67, E23

Suggested Citation

Pula, Gabor and Peltonen, Tuomas A., Has Emerging Asia Decoupled? An Analysis of Production and Trade Linkages Using the Asian International Input-Output Table (January 14, 2009). ECB Working Paper No. 993, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1311786 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1311786

Gabor Pula (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Tuomas A. Peltonen

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

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