Implications of Oil Price Shocks for Monetary Policy in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model
20 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2008
Date Written: December 6, 2008
We estimate a Vector Error Correction Model to explore the long run and short run linkages between the world crude oil price and economic activity in Ghana for the period 1970:1 to 2006:4. The results point out that there is a long run relationship between the variables under consideration. We find that an unexpected oil price increase is followed by an increase in price level and a decline in output in Ghana. We argue that monetary policy has in the past been with the intention of lessening negative growth consequences of oil price shocks, at the cost of higher inflation.
Keywords: price shock, cointegration, vector error correction, impulse response
JEL Classification: E31, E52, Q43
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