Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh

18 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2008 Last revised: 14 Dec 2008

Kayenat

North South University - Department of Economics

Mohammad Muaz Jalil

Swisscontact; University of Cambridge - Centre for Development Studies

Date Written: December 9, 2008

Abstract

Chemical Fertilizer shortage and misallocation has been a perennial problem that has fraught the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand can be a significant boon that can greatly emend the current scenario in regards to fertilizer shortage. Unfortunately government at present has no such forecasting model to tackle such issue. The paper tries to develop a forecasting model for the seasonal and annual demand of three major fertilizers, urea TSP and MP, for six years based on the forecast of production area under rice and vegetable cultivation. The choice of commodity lies in the fact that together rice and vegetable account for 78% of the cultivable area in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, Agriculture, Chemical Fertilizer Demand, ARIMA, Forecasting, Rice, Vegetable, Production

JEL Classification: Q18

Suggested Citation

Kayenat and Jalil, Mohammad Muaz, Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh (December 9, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1313585 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1313585

Kayenat Kabir

North South University - Department of Economics ( email )

NSU Campus, Bashundhara
Bangladesh, Dhaka 1213
India

Mohammad Muaz Jalil (Contact Author)

Swisscontact ( email )

House 19
Road 11
Dhaka, Baridhara 1212
Bangladesh

University of Cambridge - Centre for Development Studies ( email )

7 West Road
2nd floor, Alison Richard Building
Cambridge, CB3 9DT
United Kingdom

Paper statistics

Downloads
342
Rank
70,061
Abstract Views
2,423