Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast
Posted: 17 Dec 2008
Date Written: December, 15 2008
The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.
Keywords: Economics, Macroeconomics, Equity Investments, Research Sources
JEL Classification: E27, E37, G29
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