Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast

Posted: 17 Dec 2008

See all articles by Lawrence D. Brown

Lawrence D. Brown

Temple University - Department of Accounting

Gerald D. Gay

Georgia State University - Department of Finance

Marian Turac

Georgia State University

Date Written: December, 15 2008

Abstract

The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.

Keywords: Economics, Macroeconomics, Equity Investments, Research Sources

JEL Classification: E27, E37, G29

Suggested Citation

Brown, Lawrence D. and Gay, Gerald D. and Turac, Marian, Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast (December, 15 2008). Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 64, No. 6, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1316414

Lawrence D. Brown (Contact Author)

Temple University - Department of Accounting ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19122
United States

Gerald D. Gay

Georgia State University - Department of Finance ( email )

Robinson College of Business
Atlanta, GA 30303-3083
United States
404-413-7321 (Phone)
404-413-7312 (Fax)

Marian Turac

Georgia State University ( email )

RCB, Department of Finance
35 Broad St., Suite 1243
Atlanta, GA GA 30303
United States
(404) 413 7352 (Phone)
(404) 413 7312 (Fax)

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