Efficiency and Adaptive Expectations in Experimental Asset and Digital Option Markets
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 75, pp. 506–522, 2010
27 Pages Posted: 22 Dec 2008 Last revised: 5 May 2011
Date Written: December 19, 2008
In asset markets, extraordinary price run-ups (bubbles) followed by crashes back to levels closer to fundamental values have been shown to adversely affect the real economy, leading to inefficient resource allocation and underinvestment. Conversely, derivative markets contribute to price discovery and lead to informationally more efficient prices in the market for the underlying asset. We combine these observations and test experimentally whether digital options - a type of derivative that has recently been introduced to a wider audience via online prediction markets - can reduce price bubbles in a laboratory setting. We find that subjects do not use the derivative market to improve their forecasts of future asset prices and formulate a hypothesis to explain this result.
Keywords: experimental asset market, efficiency, adaptive expectations, digital option
JEL Classification: G01, D01, D02
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation