The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea

29 Pages Posted: 4 Jan 2009

See all articles by Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; East-West Center

Date Written: December 2008

Abstract

This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea's trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.

In retrospect, North Korea may have calculated quite correctly that the direct penalties for establishing itself as a nuclear power would be modest (or, alternatively, put such a high value on demonstrating its nuclear capability that it outweighed the downside risks, however large). If sanctions are to deter behavior in the future, they will have to be much more enthusiastically implemented.

Keywords: Sanctions, North Korea, Nuclear, United Nations, Trade equations

JEL Classification: F51, P2, D74

Suggested Citation

Noland, Marcus, The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea (December 2008). Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 08-12, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1322486 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1322486

Marcus Noland (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

East-West Center ( email )

1601 East-West Road
Honolulu, HI 96848-1601
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
698
Abstract Views
2,276
rank
42,904
PlumX Metrics