46 Pages Posted: 8 Jan 2009 Last revised: 22 Jul 2009
Date Written: July 22, 2009
We analyze whether and when polls help citizens to improve their decisions. Specifically, we use experiments to investigate 1) whether and when citizens are willing to obtain polls and 2) whether and when polls help citizens to make better choices than they would have made on their own. We find that citizens are more likely to obtain polls when the decisions they must make are difficult and when they are unsophisticated. Ironically, when the decisions are difficult, the pollees are also uninformed and, therefore, do not provide useful information. We also find that when polls indicate the welfare-improving choice, citizens are able to improve their decisions. However, when polls indicate a choice that will make citizens worse off, citizens make worse decisions than they would have made on their own. These results hold regardless of whether the majority in favor of one option over the other is small or large.
Keywords: poll, sophistication, voter, decision-making, heuristic, cue, experiment, majority, trust
JEL Classification: C90, C91, D72, D81, D83
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Boudreau, Cheryl and McCubbins, Mathew D., The Blind Leading the Blind: Who Gets Polling Information and Does it Improve Decisions? (July 22, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1324318 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1324318