The Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia

TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 13-27

Posted: 26 Jan 2009 Last revised: 11 May 2011

See all articles by Juan Gabriel Brida

Juan Gabriel Brida

Universidad de la República

Juan Sebastián Pereyra

Universidad de la República - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; El Colegio de México

Wiston Adrián Risso

University of Siena - Department of Economics

María Jesús Such-Devesa

Universidad de Alcalá

Sandra Zapata-Aguirre

Universidad de la Republica - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración; Universidad de la Republica

Date Written: January 25, 2009

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Colombia. First , we conduce an ex-post analysis. We quantify the contribution of the tourism sector to economic growth from the early 1990's until 2006 by disaggregating the growth of real GDP per capita into economic growth generated by tourism and by other industries. Second, we analyze if international tourism is a strategic factor for long-run economic growth for Colombia. This believes that tourism can cause long-run economic growth it is known in the literature as the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The hypotheses is tested empirically by using the cointegration test by Johansen and the Granger Causality test. We find empirical evidence for one cointegrated vector among real GDP per capita, Colombian tourism expenditures and real exchange rates, where the latter two variables are weakly exogenous to the model. The Granger causality test suggests that causality in this model goes from tourism expenditures to real GDP per capita.

Keywords: tourism impacts, economic growth, GDP, cointegration test, causality test

Suggested Citation

Brida, Juan Gabriel and Pereyra, Juan Sebastián and Risso, Wiston Adrián and Such-Devesa, María Jesús and Zapata-Aguirre, Sandra, The Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia (January 25, 2009). TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 13-27 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1332783

Juan Gabriel Brida

Universidad de la República ( email )

Av. 18 de Julio
Montevideo, 1968
Uruguay

Juan Sebastián Pereyra

Universidad de la República - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas ( email )

Gonzalo Ramírez 1926
CP 11200 Montevideo
Uruguay

El Colegio de México ( email )

Gonzalo Ramírez 1926
CP 11200 Montevideo
Uruguay

Wiston Adrián Risso

University of Siena - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazza S. Francesco, 7
Siena, I-53100
Italy
00390577235058 (Phone)

María Jesús Such-Devesa

Universidad de Alcalá ( email )

Plaza de la Victoria, 2
Alcalá de Henares, Asturias 33011
Spain

Sandra Zapata-Aguirre (Contact Author)

Universidad de la Republica - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración ( email )

Gonzalo Ramirez 1926
Montevideo, 11200
Uruguay

Universidad de la Republica ( email )

Gonzalo Ramirez 1926
Montevideo, 11200
Uruguay

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