The Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia
TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 13-27
Posted: 26 Jan 2009 Last revised: 11 May 2011
Date Written: January 25, 2009
The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Colombia. First , we conduce an ex-post analysis. We quantify the contribution of the tourism sector to economic growth from the early 1990's until 2006 by disaggregating the growth of real GDP per capita into economic growth generated by tourism and by other industries. Second, we analyze if international tourism is a strategic factor for long-run economic growth for Colombia. This believes that tourism can cause long-run economic growth it is known in the literature as the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The hypotheses is tested empirically by using the cointegration test by Johansen and the Granger Causality test. We find empirical evidence for one cointegrated vector among real GDP per capita, Colombian tourism expenditures and real exchange rates, where the latter two variables are weakly exogenous to the model. The Granger causality test suggests that causality in this model goes from tourism expenditures to real GDP per capita.
Keywords: tourism impacts, economic growth, GDP, cointegration test, causality test
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