Adaptive Experimental Design Using the Propensity Score

29 Pages Posted: 30 Jan 2009 Last revised: 30 Jul 2009

See all articles by Jinyong Hahn

Jinyong Hahn

University of California, Los Angeles

Keisuke Hirano

Pennsylvania State University, College of the Liberal Arts - Department of Economic

Dean S. Karlan

Yale University; Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management; Innovations for Poverty Action; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: July 22, 2009

Abstract

Many social experiments are run in multiple waves, or replicate earlier social experiments. In principle, the sampling design can be modified in later stages or replications to allow for more efficient estimation of causal effects. We consider the design of a two-stage experiment for estimating an average treatment effect, when covariate information is available for experimental subjects. We use data from the first stage to choose a conditional treatment assignment rule for units in the second stage of the experiment. This amounts to choosing the propensity score, the conditional probability of treatment given covariates. We propose to select the propensity score to minimize the asymptotic variance bound for estimating the average treatment effect. Our procedure can be implemented simply using standard statistical software and has attractive large-sample properties.

Keywords: experimental design, propensity score, efficiency bound

JEL Classification: C1, C9, C13, C14, C93

Suggested Citation

Hahn, Jinyong and Hirano, Keisuke and Karlan, Dean S. and Karlan, Dean S., Adaptive Experimental Design Using the Propensity Score (July 22, 2009). Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 969, Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 59, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1334689

Jinyong Hahn

University of California, Los Angeles ( email )

405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1361
United States

Keisuke Hirano

Pennsylvania State University, College of the Liberal Arts - Department of Economic ( email )

524 Kern Graduate Building
University Park, PA 16802-3306
United States

Dean S. Karlan (Contact Author)

Yale University ( email )

Box 208269
New Haven, CT 06520-8269
United States

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Innovations for Poverty Action ( email )

1731 Connecticut Ave, 4th floor
New Haven, CT 20009
United States

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) ( email )

E60-246
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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