40 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2009 Last revised: 18 Oct 2012
Date Written: October 17, 2012
We show that time-variation in macroeconomic uncertainty affects asset prices. Consumption volatility is a negatively priced source of risk for a wide variety of test assets. At the firm level, exposure to consumption volatility risk predicts future returns, generating a spread across quintile portfolios in excess of 7% annually. This premium is explained by cross-sectional differences in the sensitivity of dividend volatility to consumption volatility. Stocks with volatile cash flows in uncertain aggregate times require higher expected returns.
Keywords: Asset pricing, consumption volatility, cross section of returns, cash flow risk, recursive preferences.
JEL Classification: G12, G17, E44.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Boguth, Oliver and Kuehn, Lars-Alexander, Consumption Volatility Risk (October 17, 2012). Journal of Finance, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1336712 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1336712