Experts and Decision Making: First Steps towards a Unifying Theory of Decision Making in Novices, Intermediates and Experts

31 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2009

See all articles by Britta Herbig

Britta Herbig

Institute and Outpatient Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University of Munich

Andreas Glöckner

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods; University of Cologne

Date Written: January 2009

Abstract

Expertise research shows quite ambiguous results on the abilities of experts in judgment and decision making (JDM) classic models cannot account for. This problem becomes even more accentuated if different levels of expertise are considered. We argue that parallel constraint satisfaction models (PCS) might be a useful base to understand the processes underlying expert JDM and the hitherto existing, differentiated results from expertise research. It is outlined how expertise might influence model parameters and mental representations according to PCS. It is discussed how this differential impact of expertise on model parameters relates to empirical results showing quite different courses in the development of expertise; allowing, for example, to predict under which conditions intermediates might outperform experts. Methodological requirements for testing the proposed unifying theory under complex real-world conditions are discussed.

Keywords: Judgment and Decision Making, Expertise, Intermediate Effects, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Mental Representation

Suggested Citation

Herbig, Britta and Glöckner, Andreas, Experts and Decision Making: First Steps towards a Unifying Theory of Decision Making in Novices, Intermediates and Experts (January 2009). MPI Collective Goods Preprint, No. 2009/2. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1337449 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1337449

Britta Herbig (Contact Author)

Institute and Outpatient Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University of Munich ( email )

Ziemssenstr. 1
Munich, 80336
Germany

Andreas Glöckner

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ( email )

Kurt-Schumacher-Str. 10
D-53113 Bonn, 53113
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.coll.mpg.de/team/page/andreas_gloeckner

University of Cologne ( email )

Richard-Strauss-Str. 2
Köln, 50931
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://soccco.uni-koeln.de/andreas-gloeckner.html

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