The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns

65 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2009 Last revised: 4 May 2017

See all articles by Ralph S. J. Koijen

Ralph S. J. Koijen

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Hanno N. Lustig

Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Columbia University Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); ABFER

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 24, 2017

Abstract

We show that bond factors, which predict future U.S. economic activity at business cycle horizons, are priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. High book-to-market stocks have larger exposures to these bond factors than low book-to-market stocks, because their cash flows are more sensitive to the business cycle. Because of this new nexus between stock and bond markets, a parsimonious three-factor dynamic no-arbitrage model can be used to jointly price book-to-market-sorted portfolios of stocks and maturity-sorted bond portfolios, while reproducing the time-series variation in expected bond returns. The business cycle itself is a priced state variable in stock and bond markets.

Suggested Citation

Koijen, Ralph S. J. and Lustig, Hanno N. and Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns (April 24, 2017). Journal of Monetary Economics, Forthcoming, AFA 2010 Atlanta Meetings Paper, EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1341327 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1341327

Ralph S. J. Koijen (Contact Author)

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Hanno N. Lustig

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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

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