Equilibrium Credit Spreads and the Macroeconomy

33 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2009

See all articles by Joao F. Gomes

Joao F. Gomes

The Wharton School

Lukas Schmid

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 15, 2009

Abstract

Credit markets play an important role in the macroeconomy and credit market data is often used to predict future macroeconomic performance. In this paper we propose a tractable general equilibrium asset pricing model with heterogeneous firms that links movements in stock and bond markets to macroeconomic activity. The model suggests that movements in risk premia in corporate bond markets are an important determinant of aggregate fluctuations. We show that movements in credit and term spreads forecast recessions by predicting future movements in corporate investment. Endogenous movements in credit markets allow our model to match the observed conditional and unconditional movements in stock market returns and credit spreads with a reasonable amount of aggregate volatility.

Keywords: Credit Spreads, Capital Structure, Equity Premium, Preictability, General Equilibrium

JEL Classification: G12, G31, E32

Suggested Citation

Gomes, João F. and Schmid, Lukas, Equilibrium Credit Spreads and the Macroeconomy (February 15, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1343941 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1343941

João F. Gomes

The Wharton School ( email )

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Lukas Schmid (Contact Author)

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business ( email )

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Los Angeles, CA California 90089-1424
United States

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