Do Subjective Expectations Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles?

42 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2009

See all articles by Gurdip Bakshi

Gurdip Bakshi

Temple University - Fox School of Business and Management; Fox School of Business

Georgios Skoulakis

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Division of Finance

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 7, 2009

Abstract

The structural uncertainty model with Bayesian learning, advanced by Weitzman (AER 2007), provides a framework for gauging the effect of structural uncertainty on asset prices and risk premiums. This paper provides an operational version of this approach that incorporates realistic priors about consumption growth volatility, while guaranteeing finite asset pricing quantities. In contrast to the extant literature, the resulting asset pricing model with subjective expectations yields well-defined expected utility, finite moment generating function of consumption growth, and tractable expressions for equity premium and riskfree return. Our quantitative analysis reveals that explaining the historical equity premium and riskfree return, in the context of subjective expectations, requires implausible levels of structural uncertainty. Furthermore, these implausible prior beliefs result in consumption disaster probabilities that virtually coincide with those implied by more realistic priors. At the same time, the two sets of prior beliefs have diametrically opposite asset pricing implications: one asserting, and the other contradicting, the antipuzzle view.

Keywords: subjective expectations, learning, structural uncertainty, priors, predictive density of consumption growth, equity premium, riskfree return

JEL Classification: D34, G12

Suggested Citation

Bakshi, Gurdip S. and Skoulakis, Georgios, Do Subjective Expectations Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles? (January 7, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1344123 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1344123

Gurdip S. Bakshi

Temple University - Fox School of Business and Management ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19122
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/view/gurdipbakshi1

Fox School of Business ( email )

Department of Finance
Philadelphia, PA 19022
United States
215-204-6117 (Phone)
tuk40718@temple.edu (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/view/gurdipbakshi1

Georgios Skoulakis (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Division of Finance ( email )

2053 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2
Canada

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